I’m about to enter my eighth decade (if you count conception, I’m already there.) Looking back over that time, I marvel at what has become possible.
Let’s start with simple math. The world’s population (of humans) has tripled since I was born, in the Spring of 1949. Not only the total number, but the rate of rise has been higher than ever before. It took 175 years for the previous tripling; 750 years for the previous, and, well, ever longer into the past. The annual percent increase reached its maximum during the ten years between 1964 and 1973 – about 2% annually. That’s when I came of age, going from 14 to 24 myself. I didn’t realise it at the time, but the anthrosphere was exploding around me.
That has brought simultaneous challenge and change. The most obvious challenge: Will the population explosion ever stop? Well, some would say it already has. The absolute increase peaked in 2013, at 85,250,000. The percent increase is nearing 1%, and shows no signs of stopping its continued decrease. Estimates vary, but human population may peak in the middle of this century, and continue dropping. Increased education, freedom for women, rising average incomes, and reduced deadly conflict (war) are all considered factors leading to the anticipated plateau and drop in the human burden on the planet.
If our world (as some say) is such a chaotic place, going to hell all around us, what has made this possible? Food is a place to start. As one example, the population of India has quadrupled since independence in 1947. Significant poverty and human misery persist in the sub-continent, but somehow that crowded country has managed to add 1 billion people, and decreased starvation and hunger in the process. (When was the last time you heard about a famine in India?) The “Green Revolution” is largely responsible. In the 1960’s, Norman Borlaug developed higher yielding varieties of wheat in Mexico, for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. India used that advance, along with improved agricultural practices and smarter use of fertilizer and irrigation, and has remained largely self-sustaining during it’s population explosion.
Then there is the sustained reduction in human casualties from war. As one example, consider the number of American servicemen who died in World War II, compared to Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan. Even though the conflicts got progressively longer, deaths fell from (very approximately) 500,000 to 50,000 to 5,000. Part of that is due to improved battlefield and post-conflict medical care, part due to changes in how war is conducted. Of course, loss on the “other side” must be considered as well. Again, the drops may be an order of magnitude: from 10-20,000,000 to 1-2,000,000 to 100-200,000.
Even more impressive is the reduction in the number of conflicts (relative to total population) during my lifetime. Europe for the past two millennia has been not only the site of almost ceaseless conflict, but also the source of wars outside the continent, especially during the “colonial era”, from about 1500-2000. Apart from the break-up of Yugoslavia (1991-1995), Europe has not seen any state-supported wars in the past 73 years. Much of this reduction is due to two factors. First, after “The” war, the United States made a determined effort to help those countries re-build themselves, not only economically, but politically. Consider not only the Marshall Plan, but also the total political restructuring of the German state into a paragon of pacifism. As another example, in Spain, a dictator ruled until 1976. But the change to a democratic state occurred peacefully. Within that country, the Basque separatists, who had been using violence to achieve statehood, have returned to a peaceful, process-driven agenda. So much so that when Catalans voted for independence last year, what followed was not armed revolution or terrorism, but a drawn-out set of legal maneuverings. Likewise, in Northern Ireland, the IRA ended its mini-civil war with Great Britain, laid down its weapons, and brought a bit of calm to that part of the United Kingdom.
Consider also the relatively peaceful break-up of several huge empires. Unlike the devastation to civilization which followed the Fall of the Roman Empire (remember the Dark Ages?), Britain, Japan, France, and, most impressive, Russia, all allowed their imperial dominions to shrink without massive struggle. India and Pakistan fought over the spoils of South Asia, and continue to contest land claims in Kashmir. But despite (or maybe because of?) both having significant nuclear arsenals, they remain at guarded peace. Russia saw only a few burps in the outer republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Chechnya. Even its attempted anschluss of Ukraine saw very little loss of life. All this quite unlike previous wars of aggression it had waged throughout its periphery for the previous 500 years or more.
Japan, totally submissive by August 1945, has undergone an even more dramatic turn-around. From 1850 onwards, it had engaged in relentless territorial aggrandizement throughout East Asia, at its height encompassing the Philippines, Burma (now Myanmar), Korea, Siam (Thailand), Indochina (Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam), Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), Malay (Malaysia and Singapore), Manchuria (Northeast China/Beijing), and much of Eastern China, centered on Shanghai. Today, it is even more pacific than its erstwhile ally, Germany. Pacifism is written into its constitution, and it turned its considerable energy into massive economic development, arguably as remarkable a feat from 1950-1990 as China is in the midst of now. Along the way, it functioned as an engine and model of growth for its previous vassal states. Now, it is leading the way towards a smaller population.
These sweeping geopolitical trends (and others, such as the development of economic and trade pacts among countries and the growth of all the new countries formed out of those dissolving empires) have enabled a concurrent growth of world-wide wealth. This new political economy has both caused and been caused by rapid technologic change, which I’ll review in my next post.