I responded to the Coach’s request for data:
While you were writing your note, I was taking a deep-ish dive into the lead up and race data from 4 of my last 5 IMs: Kona 2014, Kona 2015, MD 2016 and AZ 2018. Here’s an executive summary of what I learned:
• Back in the 2014/15 era, I was racing without HR, so it’s fruitless to learn anything from those races as to my run HR.
• Maryland 16 & Arizona 18 do contain some lessons – or at least confirm what we already know.
• As I noted in our call, my KONA preparations were insufficient for a satisfactory race, either due to a short prep time (14), or a leg which was non functional (15). But the lead in to AZ 18 is helpful, I think.
I looked carefully at my race day HR data in MD and AZ. In MD, I had a “good” run, in that I was still running except for aid stations all the way thru, with two exceptions: there were “lakes”, 11 of them’ on the course, which I walked thru and @ about mile 11, I was giving up. I stopped and talked with my wife, who told me later she asked herself, “What would Patrick say?”. She told me to eat something, so I took a few cookies at the next aid station, and over the next 1/2 hours, brought my pace back up. At Arizona, I was doing fine until about mile 20 or so, when I started walking a bit longer in the aid stations. Mile 21+, I threw up, and while I kept running mostly, I was slowing down.
I looked at the HR files for both the bike and run in each race. For MD, I have no HR data, but my run averaged 116 the whole way, with 115 in the first 30′, and 120 the last 45′. The only dip was a slow build from 100 to 116 during that bad patch I had. My last 4-5 miles were about 30-45″ slower than my first 4-5. I felt good about that run.
At Arizona, my HR on the bike started @ 100 for the first hour, and hit avg 113 for the last hour. But then on the run, the overall average (for the first 20 miles – battery died @ that point) was 113, but 122 for the first 20 minutes. Duh, the HR line goes steadily downwards from that point, hitting 106 in the fifteen minutes before the first extended (3’30”) walk (wherein it was 91).
I think this is useful information to reinforce a strict adherance to the EN dogma about HR management over the bike/run during the race, as well as the need to keep strict control of effort all along Ali’i.
I’ve also got some thoughts also having reviewed the 12 weeks prior to each race (up to but not including the final taper week), but I;ve got to take my sister to the airport, so I’ll be back at ya tomorrow.
Here’s my summary of what I learned looking at my data during the twelve weeks before Kona ’14, ’15, LP ’15, MD ’16, AZ ’17, and Boulder ’19…there is a striking correlation with miles per week running, and my ability to successfully execute the run. The two Konas and Boulder, I was @ 21-22 and failed miserably. IM MD I was at 28+ miles per week, and was able to execute. Lake Placid: I was @ 24.4 and ran 25 miles, faltering in the last one. IM AZ 18, I ran 23.5, and faltered in the last 4.
I went back to my hugely successful runs of about 10 years ago, and found that I was running 25-ish miles a week.
A main goal is to train enough, but just enough to have a successful run in Kona, without putting my knee into a hole during training. That number seems to be 25-28 mpw. Since at least two weeks will have 18-20 miles (next week, and the week of Sept 8), that means I need to shoot for 30 mpw otherwise. I am there now, and have not noticed any worsening of my knee pain or swelling.
This exercise has been useful to get me out of the house and onto the trail or track as needed to get my mileage in.
Current training status – Last week (week before IM LP, from your perspective):
Monday: Weight room 25′; run 3.33 mi
Tuesday: PT 75′, Run Cruise intervals 4 x 1km @ 7:57 >> 7:36 pace; 70′ social ride @ IF 0.73
Wednesday: OWS 53′; Run 2 mi @ 22′, bike 100′ @ 0.7
Thursday: Mountain Goats, 5600’/50 mi/4 hr 10′ with a 60′ interval @ 0.9/2200′, OA 0.74
Friday: Zwift recovery ride 75′ @ 0.65; Run 4 mi/38′; Weights 25′
Saturday: Split Long Run 6.7/68′, 4.8/50′
Sunday: Swim 30 x 25, 8 x 50 > 1750 yds/52′; Run 3.1/28′
Total TSS: 962 (Last six weeks: 1,027, 821, 807, 933, 897). Peak CTL: 124, trough TSB: -27; Peak Ramp 6.8