This Friday, July 16th, around 8:15 AM PDT, the 2010 edition of the Tour de France will be decided.
In the last several kilometers of that day’s stage, on Newcross Hill (Cote de la Croix-Neuve), Andy Schleck will try and kick away from Alberto Contodor up and around the steepest switchbacks on this year’s course. If Schleck can pick up 20 or 30 seconds on the Pistolero, then he might – MIGHT – have a chance to pull out a fast enough time trial a week later to stay ahead all the way to Paris. If Contador can stay with him, the race is over – Alberto wins.
Andy Schleck is 25 years old, but already 3 years into his stellar TdF career. It’s been obvious from the start that he is a special climber. At 6’1” and 145 #, he’s all legs and hips, with little bird-like arms. He can jet up any slope as fast as anyone in he world, and he’s developing the strength to keep his pace steady and strong for the long uphills and 60 minute time trials which decide the Tour’s winner.
He’s also got a few other assets. He had a slightly buck-toothed impish grin to go with his boyish face and blond locks. He has a sly sense of humor; yesterday, when asked why he didn’t try harder to drop Contador on the slopes of the Madeleine, he said, “If I’d attacked one more time, I would have dropped myself!” He’s developing the insistent and all-consuming drive needed to succeed at this most grueling endurance event. He’s going to win the Tour de France, it’s just a question of when. Sometime in the next two years, he will learn how to time trial well enough to haul himself up above his current.
He’s fun to watch, and his Franco-German accented English (he’s from Luxembourg) endears him well to an American audience. Oh, and he’s got the strongest team in the world behind him (or, more precisely, in front of him). Put me behind Fabian Cancellara, Jens Vogt, and Stuart O’Grady on the flats, and Chris Anker Sorensen, Nicky Sorenson, Jacob Fuglesang, and Andy’s brother Frank on the hills, and I might have a fighting chance. (Okay, a little hyperbole there, but one can always dream …)
So – July 15: watch out for this team to try and find a good cross wind out in the flats of south eastern France to isolate and drop Contador
July 16 – Showdown on Cote de la Croix-Neuve.
July 18 – Contador will try to shine on the first uphill finish in the Pyrenees.
July 19 – A long, steep climb 12 miles before the finish may not provide any fireworks, but if Schleck feels he needs more time ahead of Contador, he will probably shred his team and try to pounce ahead again, maybe having learned something from last Sunday’s race.
July 20 – Could this be Lance’s day for a breakaway, especially if Levi Leipheimer seems out of range of third place?
July 22 – Uphill finish on the Tourmalet. If you’re not a cycling fan, know that this means SOMETHING awesome will happen on this day. It might not affect the overall standings, but it is the last chance for the climbers to make up any ground on the TT guys.
July 24 – A 30 mile flat and windy time trial – over an hour of sheer torture, and a possible coming out party for Andy Schleck, or a coronation for Alberto Contador.
July 25 – The triumphant March on Paris.
Eight days you might want to watch, if you find staring at men in tight shorts hunched over $10,000 highly unstalbe human powered two wheel vehicles fascinating. Otherwise, go for a hike.