Portents for the Future?

Ironman Arizona is ten days away. In the sig line I use at Endurance Nation, I list two goals for the year. The first was “Finish [later modified to ‘Test my fitness at…’] Ironman Coeur d’Alene.” Second was “Race IM Arizona to Win.” Certainly something I could at least shoot for. Two years ago, I did win my age group, by 20 minutes. Last year, that winning time would have won the race by 50 minutes.

But a few things seem to be standing in the way. First, confidence. After all, I had my worst IM performance ever, by over an hour, this June at Coeur d’Alene. Funny thing, I was acting like I just wanted to finish, like I didn’t care how well I did or fast I went. Second, that little accident I had a year ago, which put a seemingly endless series of obstacles in my way (which I won’t list again.) Foremost among them is the struggle I’ve had to return to form in swimming.

Two years ago, while training for IM AZ, I had a conversation in the pool at the Y with an older gent (early 70s) who seemed quite impressed with my swim stroke. He went on about my low stroke count (14/length), my steady effort, and seeming ability to “just go on forever.” His son-in-law was doing IM Hawaii, which I had just completed, and he himself had qualified for the World Championship in triathlon in 2010 in Budapest. When I got back into the pool, I knew my stroke, speed, endurance – none of that would measure up to the standard he had noticed in my. Even though I never saw that guy again, I kept asking myself, what would he say TODAY about my swimming.

Well, today I found out. He was back at the pool, getting into the lane next to me just as I finished my warm up. He told me once again how impressed he was with my stroke (“your hand entry just doesn‘t cross midline at all … you look like you could go on forever”). I gave him a brief outline of my injuries and struggle to get back to where I had been. As far as he could tell, I was the same.

Which was sort of in agreement with my times in the pool. Doing the same workouts as in 2009 and 2010, my times are close (but not yet quite the same) to what they were then. As important, they have been improving, until this week, literally every time I got in the pool for the past 6-8 weeks. I’ve finally felt like I have the endurance, as well as the speed, to achieve the time goal I set for myself when I began this project of rebuilding my swim stroke with a few less muscles: 1:16 for 2.4 miles. I used to do 1:10.

My swimming and my running have been the pillars of my racing. Many people can do well biking, but putting together a balanced attack in the Ironman is a tough nut to crack, and the swim and the run are the most common failure points for people. But this year, I’ve lost the confidence in both. Swimming, see above. Running… well, I was doing great until a month ago. I had been achieving the same times in half marathons as I had the past two years, while others my age were slowing down. I’d been handling workouts with aplomb, feeling both speed and strength.

Then, on my first long run after coming home from Colorado, I really buggered my plantar fascia. The next morning, I could not walk without a crutch. I took a week entirely off from running, then started back up at shorter distances avoiding hills and any speed faster than long run pace. Every step hurt, and I hurt the morning after. But things have been slowly improving, in the sense that the pain, tough still there, is generally getter better. And although each step hurts when I run, it’s been hurting less and less. And I’m trying to turn the whole thing into a positive. I note that running now requires much greater concentration to keep myself from re-injuring. I run with shorter, quicker steps, with a steadier head and upper body, and if I mis-step and start getting sloppy with my form, I know it immediately.

So if I can hold that concentration for 4 hours, and ignore the pain, I just might be able to throw down a decent marathon. At least paying attention to the pain in my foot, ankle and heel will help me deflect the pain sensations which usually shout at me from my thighs.

ON ANOTHER TOPIC, today was election day. And there seems to be a resurgence of hope and success for progressives and Democrats. Nasty right wing ballot measures in Ohio and Mississippi went down to stunning defeat by large margins. A Democrat seems to be winning the governorship in Kentucky. Bill Clinton is all over the media with a book, short enough to actually be read by many people, touting the standard Democratic version of the political and economic history of the last 30 years, as well as proposals for helping build a bigger economic house so the 99% can each find a room of their own.

And my secret plan for victory for President Obama next year might actually be realistic. I started wondering what it might take for him to win, and concluded the only way that could happen was if one of the Republican candidates stayed in the race after Romney wins the nomination, ala John Anderson in 1980, or Ross Perot in 1992. Disenchanted true believers could then desert their party’s candidate to send a message about ideological purity, like some Democrats did with Ralph Nadar in 2000.

Problem was, no standard issue Republican would do it. Office holders like Perry, Bachman, Santorum, or Gingrich would never buck the party like that. Ron Paul does not have the right set of political positions to make it work. The only guy who seemed at all plausible was thus Herman Cain, and he seemed to (a) not be a real candidate, just in it to have fun and sell books, (b) not really be seen as a someone a values voter could embrace, (c) not have any organization capable of sustaining a national campaign come spring and summer, starting with getting on the ballot.

But then a few things happened. He came out with his “9-9-9” flat tax plan, which seems to have galvanized the subset of true believers. He surged in the polls. Politico.com revealed his history of settlements for alleged sexual harassment in the 90’s. He announced his fealty to the funders of the Tea Party, the Koch Brothers (“I am their brother from another mother.”), thus giving him both a sufficient source of working capital and organizational support. Whether he knows it or not, all this is making him a champion for the Anyone But Romney crowd on the right of the right.

The key is the harassment charges. From the perspective of some on the left, this should be a death knell for him. But they are forgetting their own history. Far worse charges were made against Bill Clinton, yet he ended up becoming a (somewhat tarnished) martyr crucified by the vast right ring conspiracy, and rose ever higher in the polls as his second term ended.

Cain’s potential supporters see the charges – more specifically, the attention being paid to them in the media – as an attempt by the vast left wing conspiracy to get rid of him, because he is viewed by liberals as so strong and a real risk to their beloved President Obama. When actually, we view him not with horror, but with amusement, and see him as entertainment, not a threat. If he were the actual Republican Party candidate, he’d stand no more of a chance than Sarah Palin would have. Whereas Mitt Romney, whose flip-flops are anathema to true believers, is much more palatable to the relatively small group of “independent” voters who actually decide elections.

So I see the keys to an Obama win as:

• develop momentum, energy and confidence among the opinion leadership of the left. Today was a good start for that
• go into overdrive to register and get out the vote across the rainbow coalition. Today showed the potential which is still there for organizing energy; and
• siphon off some actual Republican votes via a Herman Cain who won’t go away. He’s enjoying himself and the media attention so much, and getting seen by the far right as “their guy”, enough so he just might stick around all the way to next November. And that would be the best thing that could happen for Democrats.

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